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Three key indicators suggest that global inflation may have peaked.

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Three key indicators suggest that global inflation may have peaked.

Three of the primary supply-side variables driving today’s global inflation levels have already reversed, indicating that buyers worldwide may be due for some respite.

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Three of the primary supply-side variables driving today’s global inflation levels have already reversed, indicating that buyers worldwide may be due for some respite.

The price of a bellwether semiconductor, which serves as a barometer for the pricing of completed electronics items such as laptops, dishwashers, LED lights, and medical equipment distributed throughout the world, is now half of what it was in July 2018 and down 14% from the middle of last year.

The spot pricing for shipping containers has dropped 26% since its all-time high in September 2021, which tells us more about future expenses for fashion in Chicago, luxury products in Singapore, and home furnishings in Europe.

Fertilizer costs in North America are 24 percent lower than in March, an index of global food inflation that includes bills for tomatoes in London or onions for sale in a Johannesburg market.

With inflation in the eurozone now above 8%, anticipated to remain above that level in the US when May data is released on Friday, and on the rise in Asia, central bankers worldwide are rushing to keep it under control.

Even as central banks boost interest rates, more analysts agree that peak inflation has passed us by — but there will be a lag until reduced raw material costs are reflected in consumer prices.

Though few experts foresee a return to pre-pandemic prices shortly, global retailers such as Walmart Inc. are now trying to offload bloated inventory to a less eager buyer. As a result, if supply-side pressures ease, central bankers may be able to halt their tightening cycles.

“While inflation in certain areas of the world has yet to peak, there are some signals that we may not be too far off in terms of a turning point where we start to see the annual inflation rate start to trend lower,” said Khoon Goh, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group’s Asia research head in Singapore.

China’s producer prices reached a high point in late 2021 and are now falling. According to economists, factory prices are expected to grow 6.5 percent in May from a year ago, down from 8% in April.

According to Goh, this is a positive step for global relief from imported-goods inflation. In addition, reduced container freight rates and faster supplier delivery times in purchasing managers’ indices indicate that bottlenecks are being alleviated, which could help temper pricing pressures later this year.

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