Experts believe that this time there may be less rain than normal in the monsoon season. The main reason behind this is the El Niño effect on the weather. Its impact can be so great that more than 60 per cent of the country may experience drought. There is a possibility that up to 30 percent reduction in rainfall can be registered. It is expected that the situation may improve when the second forecast comes in the month of April.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued the forecast. The matter of concern for meteorologists is that the effect of El Niño can be seen more in the months of June and July. This time connects the monsoon and summer season. Monsoon remains active during the months of June to September. In such a situation there is a possibility of drought.
What is El Niño?
Roxy Mathew Cole, climate change expert from IITM, Pune, explains that La Nina and El Niño are two natural processes. During La Nina, the tropical Pacific Ocean absorbs heat. This increases the temperature of the water. This warm water flows from the western Pacific Ocean to the eastern Pacific Ocean during the influence of El Niño. Three rounds of El Niño means that the water temperature is extreme. There may be some signs of this in the spring season.
El Nino will affect monsoon after two decades
Drought occurred four times between 2009 and 2019. In 2002 there was a decline of 19 per cent in the amount of rainfall, while in 2009 there was a decline of 22 per cent. Both these years were counted as severely dry years. In 2004 and 2015 too, there was a decline of 14-15 per cent in rainfall. Both these years were also affected by drought. The effect of El Niño was observed in 1997, after which only 102 percent of the rainfall occurred in the last 25 years.
